We'll be home before Christmas…

“We’ll be home before Christmas” was the optimistic prediction made by soldiers as they headed off to war in August 1914.

The term has become a popular catch phrase for describing those making overly optimistic predictions on any given situation.

The ongoing global financial meltdown, I believe, is one such case. Experts seem to believe that within one or two years things will begin to improve, I disagree.

This is the worst financial crisis in history further complicated by the fact that it comes at a time when natural resources are rapidly dwindling and the global environment is showing clear signs of irreversible damage.

It could be seen as a perfect storm that may result in a long term global depression. The Great Depression that started in 1929 lasted until the early 1940s when, grotesquely, it took mass destruction and the killing of over 50 million people to kick start the world economy.

At best, I would say we are looking at a five year global depression that could even stretch to ten years. It’s more difficult to predict whether we’ll see soldiers heading off to yet another world war promising to be home before Christmas but given the vagaries of human nature it’s not beyond possibility.

Musings while waiting for the Tsunami

Some musings on recent events

Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan, said his budget was designed to ‘help the little people’. ‘Little people’ is an interesting choice of words, it suggests an aristocratic mindset of rulers and the ruled.

Lenihan said he wanted to protect the vulnerable. So, why did he attack the elderly, cut school class sizes, abolish the Combat Poverty Agency and slash the budget of the Equality Authority and the Human Rights Commission?

Lenihan had no problem helping out the ‘big people’. He gave about €1.5 billion to Fianna Fail’s property developer friends and pledged €485 billion (that we don’t have) to bail out the banks.

When Mary Harney was asked about imposing a 1% levy on the lower paid she said:

“We’re saying somebody on €10,000, yes a small salary, will pay €100 a year – we’re all in this together.

“The levy is on gross income and I do not think it’s unreasonable that somebody that earns €100 would pay one euro out of that towards the difficult challenges this country faces. I think we’re all being asked to make a sacrifice.”

This woman, who is paid (but doesn’t earn) about half a million per annum, has absolutely no idea what it’s like to survive on a poverty wage of €10,000.

Somebody mentioned during the week that politicians are paid ‘walk around’ money of €12,500 per year. Apparently, this is used to buy drink, raffle tickets and whatever else they like – to buy votes.

Of course, there’s nothing to stop politicians from keeping the money for themselves – there are no spot checks on the honesty of those who rule us.

Nice to hear though, that Harney, in her uniquely condescending way, is confident that the ‘vast majority’ of over 70s are honest and will hand back their medical cards if they’re earning above the rate.

But she did let slip in an interview that the HSE would be carrying out spot checks – just in case. The Mail on Sunday reported recently that the HSE was determined to severely punish any elderly citizen who tried to cheat the State by imposing heavy fines and, if necessary, jail.

Ah yes, the HSE. An organisation set up by Harney and now completely out of control. A bureaucratic monster responsible for immense suffering; that regularly puts the lives of citizens in danger in order to cover up gross incompetence. Can we be confident that this monster will hunt down and punish every elderly citizen that tries to cheat the State – Yes, we can.

It’s amazing to see how quickly the Greens’ have become totally assimilated into the Fianna Fail world of double speak and hypocrisy.

The sat at the Cabinet table and said nothing, they gave Lenihan a standing ovation when he delivered his ‘little people’ budget, they ran for cover when the wave of anger began to build and finally, when they realised which way the wind was blowing, they tried to return to principles and honesty. How pathetic is that?

Where are all those journalists and commentators who bowed down before the Great Cowen? This man, they said, was the Second Coming, Bertie, apparently was the first.

Cowen, they said, was a man of immense intelligence, a man not to be trifled with, a man who gave and demanded total loyalty, a man who modeled himself on Lemass; a man of action who was going to lead his country to the Promised Land.

Now we know that he’s just an ordinary backwoodsman Fianna Fail bluffer who, when the going got tough, legged it off to China to hide from the wrath of pensioners.

Feck, Joe Behan ???? Completely threw me, still haven’t got my head around the fact that a Fianna Fail TD could resign on principle and for the good of the country – Don’t think I ever will.

Final thought:

All this local excitement has distracted us from the global financial crisis, the full affects of which have yet to hit. Most other countries have recapitalised their banks, we haven’t because we don’t have the money. When the banks come calling we’ll be depending on the likes of Lenihan and Cowen to look after our interests.

We’re in a moment just like that before a Tsunami strikes. The sea is sucked out a great distance from the shore and people, in their ignorance and excitement, rush out to stare at beached fish flapping about. There’s absolutely no realisation of what’s just beyond the horizon.

Back to the UK?

Letter in this morning’s Irish Independent

Shoppers fleeing rip-off Republic

Tuesday September 09 2008

The news that private bus companies are running buses from Dublin, and as far as Athlone, to the Asda stores in the North should be proof positive that prices here are far too high.

Why would anyone travel as far as 300 kilometres on a bus to do their weekly shop, unless there was a huge difference in prices?

This year, 40pc of the shoppers in the Asda store in Strabane are from the Republic, as opposed to 27pc last year. This is a national disgrace.

Mary Coughlan has commissioned yet another report as to why prices are so much higher here than up North. She had better get the report on her desk without delay or she could find herself out of a job faster than she thinks.

People are fed up being ripped off in this republic and morale is sinking fast.

If the Government can’t sort out the problems we’re all facing then it’s time to get a new one, or else Dick Roche will be having another referendum — not on the Lisbon Treaty — but on whether or not we go back into the United Kingdom.

RORY O’MEARA
DUBLIN 8

Dangerous talk in a dream world

David McWilliams took Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan to task on Saturday View.

“Three years ago when I said this thing can’t last, house prices will fall, I was told ‘that’s dangerous talk. Don’t ever suggest that, it’s unpatriotic.’ The minute we muzzle economic analysis we go back into the dream world that left us in this mess. And you know minister, that anybody that punctured the dream, anybody who said this was fundamentally detrimental to the economy was told, you’re dangerous. I’m saying again, look at the banking system that’s where the weakness is.”

The Minister replied;

“I can assure your listeners that the Regulator has maintained a very detailed supervision of Irish banks and that the Irish banks are not in anything like the difficulties that their counterparts in the US are.”

Here’s the reality. The Irish banking system is the least regulated in the Western world. The New York Times described the Irish system as the “Wild West of European finance”. Irish banks have robbed countless millions from the State and their customers over the years and not a single bank or official has ever been investigated by the police.

The so called Regulator has never punished the banks in any form whatsoever and usually allows them to investigate themselves. Irish banks are among the most profitable and greedy in the World mainly because they can pretty much do as they please without any fear of consequences.

This Minister knows nothing about the real situation because his information comes from the Central Bank and the so called Financial Regulator who take their orders from the banks. Taxpayers should hold on tightly to their wallets, the banks will soon be looking to do some more pick pocketing.

Different folk – Different law

The new charity legislation going through the Dail was discussed on Today with Pat Kenny during the week.

Pat mentioned the case of a Romanian woman who was charged with organising a bogus charity collection in Dun Laoghaire. The woman was up in the children’s court under the Theft and Fraud Offences Act and was remanded on bail until a further hearing later this month.

Meanwhile, yet another solicitor is under investigation by the Law Society amid allegations of forging passports and falsifying bank loans to the tune of €1 million. (A million Euro fraud seems to be the magic figure that triggers action against solicitors)

We’re told there’s the ‘possibility’ that the Fraud Squad may even be called in. It’s unlikely as I’m sure they’re fully focused on dealing with that dangerous Romanian child.

And let’s not forget that Jim Flavin is and will remain a free man despite his €83 million fraud on the Irish Stock Market.

We’ll never see Flavin or that solicitor remanded on bail – the very idea.

Village bows out

I see Vincent Browne’s magazine, Village, is to cease production. It was an excellent magazine with some very good analysis covering a wide range of areas.

I was surprised to learn that it hadn’t broken a single notable story since its launch in 2004. I was even more surprised to learn that businessman Michael Smith was a big investor in the project.

Smith did the country some great service in 1995 when his offer of a substantial reward for anyone coming forward with evidence of planning corruption led to the setting up of the Planning Tribunal. He is also a board member of Transparency International Ireland.

See here for Smith’s very interesting views on Browne and Village.

New M50 toll – The vultures are gathering

Only last Tuesday I wrote that the assurances given by Hugh Creegan of the National Roads Authority that motorists would not be charged extra by retailers for their toll cards had about as much credibility as a politician’s promise. Here’s what Creegan said;

“No, there won’t be any surcharging; they’ll just be paying the statuary toll charge and nothing else. While it may be technically possible it won’t happen in practice.”

Already, the vultures are circling. Vincent Jennings of the Convenience Stores and Newsagents Association provided the following pathetic excuse for the latest rip off of Irish consumers (The Last Word, Monday).

“We’re receiving less than 2.5 cents for the €3 transaction and you have to key it through, even or eight digits per registration, you have to be very sure that you hear the person correctly; that you transpose it correctly into the machine. All of that takes in excess of 30 seconds and it’s just not economic at 2.5 cents.”

We can take it that retailers are not being tortured into providing this service; we can take it that they sat down and did some hard bargaining with the operators before satisfying themselves that they were getting a good price for their services. We can, in other words, take it that the retailers were more than happy with the 2.5 cents they finally agreed to for every 30 second transaction.

What they are now doing is applying the Irish rip off charge. They can do this with impunity because there is no consumer protection in Ireland; the National Consumer Authority is a joke. They can do this because Irish people are submissive, they do not have the ability to get angry en masse.

It is fascinating to watch motorists smiling happily for the cameras as they enthusiastically endorse this latest government scam that will see motorists buy this stretch of road for the third or fourth time.

It is depressing to realise that Irish people have no idea of their political power. All motorists have to do is block the M50 until such time as the toll is abolished. I’d give it two or three days at most before our cowardly politicians submitted to the wishes of the people.

Copy to:
NRA
NCA
Convenience Stores and Newsagents Association

Shock and horror – on hearing the truth

An absolutely outrageous event occurred in this country last Tuesday. The incident shocked hardened journalists and appalled a member of academia. The event was so abhorrent that a warning was issued before it was re-broadcast.

Fine Gael TD, Leo Varadkar was the culprit and he was expressing the view that Bertie Ahern’s evidence to the tribunal played a part in the referendum defeat. Here’s what he had to say.

“And of course we should not forget the issue of the tribunals, which is a serious matter…And I don’t think it’s just about the cost of the tribunals. I think people would be prepared to bear the cost of the tribunals if they actually saw consequences but there are no consequences.

We have a former Taoiseach who has gone into the tribunal essentially giving the John Gilligan defence, that he won the money at the horses. Now this is a defence for drug dealers, this is a defence for pimps, this is not the kind of thing that should be tolerated from a former Taoiseach and a former (sic) member of this house but we do nothing, we wash our hands, we say it’s a matter for the tribunal and there is no accountability, there is no ethics and we ask ourselves why people have such a low opinion of politicians.” (Morning Ireland, 3rd report 1st item).

The RTE presenter who introduced the report spoke in a solemn and concerned voice normally reserved for reports of mass murder or the assassination of a head of state.

To avert any possibility of legal action he emphasised that Varadkar was speaking under privilege in Dail Eireann. At he end of the report the presenter felt compelled to comment – “Fairly strong stuff.”

Varadkar’s views were discussed on Today with Pat Kenny (Friday) by journalists Michael O’Regan, Michael Clifford and DCU lecturer Marie-Louise O’Donnell.

O’Regan – “I thought that was utterly unfair, I thought the language he used was unfortunate to be quite honest with you and I thought he’s want to get his act together. He’s in the door, he’s wet behind the ears, and he’d want to think before he speaks.”

O’Donnell – “And he’s out of control.”

O’Regan – “And his party leader might want to speak to him. The fact of the matter is we’ve all commented, media and indeed some ministers, TDs and senators have commented on Mr. Ahern’s evidence and it is as Michael Clifford said, you know, unbelievable etc. but we have to await ultimately the judgement of the tribunal…”

“…I have some sympathy for Fianna Fail ministers who had a Taoiseach who was giving evidence to a tribunal and the tribunal had yet to give its definitive judgement on it. If it was any other party it would have been the same.”

O’Donnel – “And you have to talk about loyalty there too, you’re right Michael, I mean you have to talk about loyalty.”

So, why were these people angry, why was the RTE presenter so worried about re-broadcasting Varadkar’s comments? They would claim, and most would agree, that it was because they were outraged to hear Bertie Ahern being described in such terms.

But they’re wrong – These people were angry because Varadkar spoke the complete and unvarnished truth. This kind of brutal truth is unacceptable in corrupt Ireland; it is unacceptable to journalists who have evolved a seamless and unhealthy bond of friendship with politicians, journalists who have lost all objectivity, journalists who can instantly recognise, condemn and objectively report on corruption so long as it is happening outside Ireland. (See here for a good example of this double think).

O’Donnell, like the Taoiseach, obviously sees loyalty to the leader as the greatest virtue. She obviously believes such loyalty takes precedence over loyalty to the State, to its people and to the law of the land.

She obviously believes that the massive damage done to the State and its people by low pedigree politicians is of little consequence when compared to the need to show blind and unquestioning loyalty – even when they resort to the tactics of pimps and drugs dealers as Varadkar rightly claims.